Foresight Case Study October 15, 2021
Case Study: Foresight, the Automated Subject Matter Expert (ASME) predicts the results of the upcoming Virginia Elections with 100% accuracy 19 days in advance.
On October 15, 2021, Ambassador Michael Gfoeller (ret.) ran a predictive case study with Foresight, the Automated Subject Matter Expert developed by Potentia Analytics, to predict the outcome of the upcoming November 2, 2021, Virginia elections. The final case study outcome [figure 3] was 100% accurate 19 days in advance of the election results posted on November 3, 2021. Below is the narrative related to this case study.
“Foresight outperformed the party’s predictions.”
Ambassador Gfoeller (ret.)
I have done a Foresight prediction for the Virginia gubernatorial election, scheduled to end on November 2. Both early voting in person and voting by mail are allowed in this election. Foresight predicts that Republican challenger Glenn Youngkin has a better than even chance of defeating former Democratic governor McAuliffe and winning this election. It assigned a rating of 69 out of 100 to Youngkin’s chance of victory. The matrix [Figures 1 & 2] includes a dozen actors. The analysis took 11 moves.
I am not an expert on the politics of Virginia, but I performed this analysis nevertheless because of its intrinsic interest. I note that Foresight has left the door open to a McAuliffe victory, while concluding that it is a much less likely outcome. Of course, either party’s use of fraud on a truly massive scale would skew the results. In my opinion, the algorithm allows for fraud, but only if it balances out along party lines.
The media are mostly predicting a victory by McAuliffe. However, his lead is within the margin of error. A few polls show Youngkin ahead by a point or two. Democrat commentators are worried about a lack of enthusiasm for McAuliffe. I believe that Foresight may be detecting a largely ignored trend.
I have attached the analytical matrix and graphs below.
Figure 1: Virginia election prediction 10_15_21_analytical matrix 1
Figure 2: Virginia election prediction 10_15_21_analytical matrix 2
Figure 3: Virginia election predicted results 10_15_21
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Amb. Michael Gfoeller (ret.) is an independent consultant on international politics and security matters.
He served for 26 years (1984 to 2010) as a US Foreign Service Officer. His career included service in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; Manama, Bahrain; Iraq; Moscow, Russia; Yerevan, Armenia; Chisinau, Moldova; Warsaw, Poland; and Brussels, Belgium. From 2004 to 2008, he served as Deputy Chief of Mission and Charge’ d’Affaires at the US Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
He served for two years (2008-2010) as the Senior Political Advisor to General David Petraeus, then Commander, US Central Command. He retired from the State Department with the rank of Ambassador. His foreign languages include Arabic, Russian, French, and German.
Amb. Gfoeller is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Cosmos Club, the Union League Club of New York, and a Board Member of Potentia Analytics. He is also a Founding Partner of Arabia Analytica, LLC.
Additional links related to Ambassador Michael Gfoeller (Ret.):
• https://mepc.org/us-commitments-gulf-arab-states
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CtiGCGY1bb0
• https://ncusar.org/blog/2020/09/vision-or-mirage-book-discussion/
• https://gulfif.org/event/upcoming-online-panel/
ABOUT Foresight™: https://www.foresightai.ai
Foresight™ by Potentia Analytics™ is an Automated Subject Matter Expert (ASME) that empowers decision makers to make superior choices with the power of advanced artificial intelligence and machine learning. It can predict the outcome of any situation involving commercial, economic or political, conflict and competition. Traditional technologies predict future results by looking for patterns in historical data, with limited success. Foresight breaks with tradition by leveraging subject matter experts’ knowledge and understanding and the power of game theory to predict future events and actions. Foresight leads all other predictive technologies with an accuracy rate exceeding 85% and in many cases is 100% accurate.
For more information about Foresight™ software by Potentia Analytics, visit https://www.foresightai.ai™ or reach out to us at inquiries@potentiaco.com.